The coverage of eBook readers, tablets, and whatever magic device Apple might have up its sleeve has me thinking a lot about a question that may well determine the success (or failure) of these devices:

Do they represent the evolution of technology or paper?

It’s easy to casually suggest both, but from the standpoint of publishers, one spells success and the other spells failure. If the devices are perceived by the buying public as an evolution of technology, it’s reasonable to think that consumers will expect free content just like what they’re used to getting in their web browsers. On the other hand, if these devices are seen as an evolution of paper – esentially a digital, reusable version of the print medium people are used to buying at the newsstand, the hurdle for publishers may be lower.

As I see it, publishers are going to try to push the latter message in their marketing, while consumers are likely to think in terms of the former. Time, Inc. and Hearst Corporation are each rumored to be developing such a device, which would be used as a publishing platform for magazine titles. That certainly sounds like a manifestation of the “evolution of paper” theme, and it raises another question: will consumers really carry a device for each publisher?